st gaudens gold coins
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Gold a Good Deal Yet...?
All the hype about the new or next bull market in gold was a calling to the novice "sheepish" investors to the shearing shed. It is so unfortunate that these traders or investors "listen" to the hype but NEVER, EVER hear a word being spoken...
It is never been about what is being spoken at the time something is being "sold to us" but rather what is not being said that causes such great harm to the novice investor. At the time when gold was at it's all time high $US 1008.00 per oz., everyone and his brother, not to mention their sister, brother-in-law, etc., was out there hooping it up about "gold" rising to the stars and beyond.
All the "gold guru's" were hyping the airwaves with their sales pitches saying, how "you need to buy gold", it's going higher, that when it is adjusted for inflation, the metal's real value should be over $US 2000.00 per oz., etc. Everywhere you listened and you heard the same 'ol, same 'ol story about the metal was being told, by pundit and promoter's alike. Just one big, big problem!
Gold was topping out and the signs were very evident to the experienced trader/investor. First, the contrarian alerts were sounding a warning signal "loud and clear" to abandon the tired bull and head, with your cash for the side lines or as we did, sold out all positions in the hard asset, numismatic coins included and moved to a cash and began taking positions in "put" options on the and in the following XAU, GLD, ABX, NEM, gold stocks and indices. The result was a nice score, a handsome reward for moving at the right time, and this right time is not as elusive as the "pros", the "experts" and or "guru's" would have you believe.
A TELTALE SIGN
As an experienced trader, I watch many indicators and one of my first indications to the coming down turn in gold was that of a contrarian view; too many bulls parading around touting golds new advance to another all time record... bah, humbug!
Next, the coin market was not confirming the move up in gold, i.e., the demand for gold coins was now moving up with the price of the metal. They were like sticks in the mud, churning and churning around the same level $US 1100 - 1200 for a $20 St. Gauden MS 64! Gold was now at an all time high of $US 1008.00 per .oz - Not bad you say? Except this one thing which denoted something was seriously wrong, these coins hadn't really moved up in value since gold had been at $US 700.00 per oz!
They (the value) was churning away. Heavy holders of the metal were unloading their positions in the metals, while "selling" the hype about the metal to the unsuspecting, investor in the metal.
The housing market, credit and financial markets were unraveling and losing ground fast, they were in a correction, but the ascertation wasn't correct, wasn't being read right because gold (the flight to quality) wasn't confirming the "chicken little" theory that was being talked (sold) to the novice investor community. Yet the more these investors moved into gold positions, the more it's "flight to quality" was being sold, the less traction the metal was making.... hmm! Another thing was very curious to us as we started heading for the doors, and that was the difficulty we had in getting a fair price for the numismatic coins (hard assets) we were trying to sell, a great deal of price haggling. Something we had never experienced in all our trading experience - Never!
GOING KNOW WHERE....?
So, where is the metal heading now? Into a long consolidation, it needs to digest it's losses and traders will need time to re-evaluate the metal for it's next bullish or bearish move. How I'm playing the metal now? I will be playing the gold markets with options (calls and puts) and options spreads (a safer play) on XAU and the under lying gold and gold mining stocks.
It has always been my experience, as a student of the markets, that after a long and precipitous fall has occurred the market and or security that has experienced the debacle takes three to six months to work off the excesses and or oversold conditions - but don't look for any announcements that the bulls and or hedgers are playing this market in that way. You'll only get the information after the fact and the reversal is underway, i.e., you're missing the next prosperous run!
Silver Gold Refinery Corp. Gold Refinery
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st gaudens gold coins