Russia Central Asia
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Is President Obama appeasing Russia's imperialist policies?
Peter Richardson
Using the so called reset in relations with the US, Russia is trying to restore its imperial rule in former Soviet republics. In exchange to Moscow's dubious support to Washington on Iran and Afghanistan, Obama's Administration seems to be ready to close eyes to Russia's policy in the CIS states. This short-sighted stance may have high costs for the long-term US interests in the region.
With the silent reaction from the US, this year Russia has achieved remarkable geopolitical gains in post-Soviet space, referred by Moscow as a zone of its "privileged interests". Moscow was able to preserve its navy in Ukrainian port of Sevastopol until the mid of this century. More than a decade of Russia's fierce attempts to get such a deal had continuously failed. Only when the US and NATO stepped aside, Moscow was able to impose a deal on a cash-hungry Ukraine in exchange for reduced gas prices.
Similar gains Moscow had in Caucasus. Despite the international outcry, Russia has built up a strong military bases in breakaway republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia that pose an imminent threat to Georgia and prolonged for more than 40 years the presence of Russian military base in Armenia , which enables Moscow to keep Azerbaijan under its tight control. Without any support from the US or NATO, or even from its closest ally - Turkey, now Azerbaijan has no other choice but to follow the Russian "rules of the game". These rules mean – no close relations with the West and no natural gas sales to Europe.
Any post-Soviet state that withstands to Russia's new imperial policy may be a subject to an enormous Russian political and economic pressure combined with a large-scale disgusting information attacks. Recently, the president of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko has become a target of such attack for refusing to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Russian television described him as a ruthless and corrupt politician, who suffers from mental problems. Earlier this year Moscow has increased the price of oil and gas to Belarus demanding to sell local pipeline infrastructure and refineries to Russian oligarchs and forcing him to join the Russian controlled Custom's Union and CSTO's Collective Rapid Reaction Forces. The both organizations are the Russian tools to give a form of legitimacy to its imperialist policies.
Uzbekistan, one of the key post-Soviet states in Central Asia, has also become a target of concealed pressure by Kremlin for ceasing its membership in Russian dominated economic organization of EuraSEC, Custom Union's predecessor, and speaking loudly against the creation of the Collective Rapid Reaction Forces. Moscow is cautious of direct pressure on self-sufficient and internally coherent Uzbekistan. Russian politicians paranoidically afraid that Uzbekistan may look for the US or China as an alternative to Russia and other Central Asian states may follow him as it happened in 2001, when Uzbekistan agreed to station American troops in its territory without Russian consent. Soon after the rest of states in the region made similar movements.
Many in Kremlin believe that the best way to enforce Uzbekistan into Russian orbit is to create problems between Uzbekistan and its neighbors, so that Uzbekistan itself would ask for Moscow's mediation in return for recognizing the primacy of its interests in the region. The recent ethnic conflict in Kyrgyzstan between Uzbek and Kyrgyz communities is believed to be a part of large-scale Russian plan to achieve such a goal. But so far Uzbekistan has been successfully challenging Russia's imperialist ambitions.
Meanwhile Kyrgyzstan, a state on the edge of collapse, has become a regular subject of Russian intimidation. The previous regime of ex-president Bakiev, who tried to play with the US and China against the Russian interests, was overthrown by opposition forces with the help of Moscow. However, the new government led by President Roza Otunbaeva is more willing to adopt pro-western policy. As a result, in recent parliamentary elections Moscow strongly supported pro-Russian parties, which were able to receive the majority of votes. After the elections the leaders of these parties visited Moscow for consultations. Some of them have already spoken about the necessity of rejoining Russia and closing the US airbase in Kyrgyzstan, which is used for operations in Afghanistan. If they are able to form a new government and take a totally pro-Russian course, one may expect a dramatic strengthening of Russian presence in Central Asia and the US retreat from this part of the world.
Currently another Central Asian state – Tajikistan, is facing a fierce battle between government troops and Islamic opposition. The local politicians believe that the latter is supported by Russia. Not so long ago the President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon asked Moscow to pay for stationing the largest Russian foreign military base in his country or witness the emergence of other countries' bases in Tajikistan. The Russian response was swift and harsh. After a series of economic sanctions under the pretext sanitary requirements, Rahmon faced a strong military opposition, backed by Kremlin. The message was understood - Tajik president dropped the claims for payment and announced that Russia is welcome to open a new military airbase in the outskirts of the capital city.
Bolstered by its success and impunity, Moscow has now started an aggressive policy against Turkmenistan, which so far remained somewhat distant in Russia's violent games, despite the last years' crisis over the gas issue. Unable to sell and pay high prices for Turkmen gas in the period of economic crisis, Russia last year just blew up the pipeline that transports gas from Turkmenistan and declared that it will resume imports, if only the prices were reduced. Despite the loss of billions of dollars, Turkmenistan did not agree and instead looked for other customers in China, Iran, Europe and India. Moscow had kept a cynical silence until Turkmenistan's plans had become a reality. On October 21-22 Russian president Dmitry Medvedev rushed to Turkmenistan hoping to resume the pre-crisis amounts of gas imports. But the visit became a disaster, as his Turkmen counterpart rejected any concessions. Humiliated Russia has started making aggressive statements. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin stated that Turkmenistan will not be able to send its gas to Europe causing a furious response from Turkmen side. One can be sure that aggressive Russian statements will be followed with aggressive measures against Turkmenistan.
Among the post Soviet states only Kazakhstan keeps loyal to the Russian policies. Having a large Russian diaspora in the country that makes up nearly a half of the population and totally dependent on Russia in terms of transportation and security, Kazakhstan has no other choice. Moreover, instead of decreasing this dependence on Russia, Astana is keen to camouflage it by calling for a close political, economic and military cooperation among the post-Soviet states under Moscow's control. Thus, Kazakhstan has become a useful tool in Kremlin's hands to restore its former empire.
Just a couple of years ago such an aggressive Russian policy to its neighbors would be impossible, mainly because the United States and European countries that strongly supported the independence of former Soviet republics right from the beginning would deter any Moscow's imperial ambitions. But Obama's administration naively believes that Russia under the president Dmitry Medvedev has changed and can cooperate with the US for the common good. This is an unforgivable mistake. While president Medvedev, who has no real power in the country, tries to play a role of progressive and liberal-minded leader to win the "hearts and minds" of western policymakers, the real figure behind the Russian politics - Vladimir Putin, is using the opportunity to strengthen the "vertical of power" in Russia in order to create a more favorable conditions to challenge the West, when he takes the presidential post again in 2012. The recent abolition of presidential posts in Russian federal republics and dismissal of strong regional leaders is a clear evident of Putin's plans to consolidate the power in the country, which otherwise becomes Russia's weakest point, when it pursues an aggressive foreign policy. Putin's return will inevitably put under the question Russia's present half-hearted support to the US in dealing with the problems of Iran and Afghanistan. Unfortunately, by that time the US may lack the support of the CIS states, its closest allies in preventing the resurgence of the Russian empire.
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Russia Central Asia